PC shipments are still rebounding after last year, and consumer electronics
remains a bright spot. But while demand from business is robust, high
component prices have limited back-to-school promotions.
Expected PC sales are slipping from consensus growth of about 19 per cent this
year towards the low teens, and prices may be under pressure as expected
demand fails to materialise. Meanwhile, Apple has resolved early
manufacturing problems and now sells iPads as fast as it makes them.
The initial reaction was that these new devices represented incremental
computing demand, but it now appears that tablets could be truly
revolutionary.
Asian manufacturers are quietly starting to blame tablets for weakness,
particularly in sales for low-cost laptops. As netbooks did to full-spec
portables two years ago, tablet purchases are prompting PC owners to defer
replacing old equipment.
Barclays Capital estimates that next year tablet sales of 31m (including 21m
iPads) will surpass netbook shipments of 25m.
Ultimately these are all computers, suggesting a robust industry outlook as
PCs move from household to true personal ownership. But consultant Forrester
forecasts tablets will take almost a quarter of the PC market by 2015.
Groups such as Motorola, Nokia and Research in Motion plan to produce tablets,
giving them an opportunity to move back into a true growth market and
compete against traditional PC makers Hewlett-Packard and Dell.
The guts may be different as well. Arm-based chips and Google’s Android
software might displace Intel and Microsoft. There are plenty of diners at
the feast but no one’s sure who is on the menu.
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